Black Swans

From Nassim Taleb

http://www.globeinvestor.com/servlet/story/GAM.20090914.RTALEB14ART1918/GIStory/


We here in Canada feel pretty good because our banks are in good shape and we've escaped relatively lightly. What's your take?

That's true. You guys are slightly more insulated than others. But there's no way you can escape the mistakes made by others. They'll just cost you somewhat less. But if we wind up with hyperinflation, Canada will be the best place in the world to be. You've got energy and minerals. You're not overspecialized. You're self-sufficient.

Up here our government is promising we can get rid of our deficit by 2015. Any views on that?

Governments never got projections right before, so why should they now?

So if everyone is still on the wrong track, what's the right track?

My whole idea is to lower risk in society by developing a system that can resist human error, rather than one where human error rules. The first step is to make sure that no financial institution is too big to fail. Next, make sure governments don't favour big companies. Governments should also decrease the role of economists - they're no more reliable than astrologers, and they do more damage.